Induced Demand Implications of Autonomous Vehicles

The Induced Demand Implications of Alternative Adoption Modalities of Automated Vehicles

​Principal Investigator: Irfan Batur, Associate Research Technologist, School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment
​Co-Principal Investigator: Ram M. Pendyala, Director and Professor, School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment
Project Duration: 12 months
​Project Budget (Federal UTC Funds): N/A
Project Budget (Cost-share): N/A
Institution: Arizona State University

Abstract
There is considerable concern about the induced demand implications of the advent of automated vehicles. In an automated vehicle future, drivers and passengers are relieved of the driving task, thus rendering car travel more convenient and less onerous. As such, there is the possibility that people will undertake more trips in an automated vehicle future, raising the specter of induced demand. Induced demand may also arise from mode shifts, changes in trip lengths, and residential relocations. This research project recognizes that induced demand resulting from the adoption of automated vehicles is inter-related to the adoption modality. Automated vehicles may be purchased and owned personally or used as a mobility-on-demand service (or both). This project aims to shed light on the relationship between automated vehicle adoption modality and likelihood of making additional trips in an automated vehicle future. A joint model of these two outcome variables, wherein automated vehicle adoption modality affects likelihood of making additional trips, is estimated. The results show that any adoption modality increases the likelihood of making additional trips, with private ownership contributing more to induced demand than a service-based adoption modality. Efforts should be aimed at curbing private ownership of automated vehicles to prevent unintended consequences.

Research Products and Implementation

​​Final Report (coming soon)